Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

3C 0x3c17…15a2 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$89 (+20%) realized +$75 · open +$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +108% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +73% what you keep after slip

Net edge+73%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate67%12W / 6L

Drawdown25%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day12.8pace

Kalshi-fit64%portable

Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+88.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+107.7%	+88.0%	67%	33%	+16.9%
≤30d	18	+107.7%	+88.0%	67%	33%	+16.9%
≤90d	18	+107.7%	+88.0%	67%	33%	+16.9%
all	18	+107.7%	+88.0%	67%	33%	+16.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+88.0%	33%	+16.9%
10%	+70.0%	22%	+5.7%
15%	+53.6%	22%	-4.5%
20%	+38.5%	22%	-13.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 75% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +108% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +187% → late +28% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$158

Realized+$75

Unrealized+$14

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses12 / 6

Open positions4

Markets (closed)18 / 22

History coverage2d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day12.8

Drawdown25%

Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	No	84¢	93¢	$133	$148	+$15 (+11%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	24¢	23¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Jun 15	$5	$0	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 15	$5	$0	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Jun 15	$5	$0	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 15	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Jun 15	$25	$0	+2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$35	−$4	-13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	+$5	+90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$3	+$8	+250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Jun 14	$6	+$1	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 14	$10	$0	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Jun 14	$2	−$1	-32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 14	$10	+$2	+19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$145	+$9	+6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$4	−$4	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 14	$6	+$7	+127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Jun 14	$5	+$99	+1863%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$5	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$5	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Down	32¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$25	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	81¢	$31	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$35	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	BUY Down	86¢	$6	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$10	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$1	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$1	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Up	83¢	$10	19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	BUY No	84¢	$134	20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$5	20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$3	20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	46¢	$4	21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$145	27h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY No	24¢	$5	28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$5	28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$6	28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$5	28h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$2	29h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$3	29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	94¢	$4	45h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.72 · official $157.72 (match) · 47 history records