Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c16…d262
weather · 92 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$114 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$116 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses50 / 40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage29d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 90 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 56¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+77%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 27? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 22? No 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 27? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 27? No 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on May 24? No 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 25? No 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 27? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on May 24? No 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 22? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on May 23? No 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 30? No 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$5 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $16 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $13 −$12 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $12 −$10 -82%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$3 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 30? May 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on May 28? May 28 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $90 −$85 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 28? May 28 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 27? May 28 $4 −$3 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 27? May 28 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 27? May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or below on May 26? May 26 $5 $0 +10%
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? May 26 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 27? May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $23 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 25? May 25 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25? May 25 $6 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? May 25 $1 +$19 +1304%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 25? May 25 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 25? May 25 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 24? May 25 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 24? May 24 $6 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on May 24? May 24 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 24? May 24 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 25? May 24 $5 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 24? May 24 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 24? May 24 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 24? May 24 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? May 24 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 24? May 24 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 24? May 24 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on May 24? May 24 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 96% −$108
crypto 3% −$6
other 1% $0
world 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 24¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 8¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 24¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 8¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 23¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 8¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 23¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 56¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 23¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 56¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 7¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 24¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 57¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 89¢ $16 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL No 4¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 17¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $12 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $14 21h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $14 21h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $15 21h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 57¢ $13 23h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $12 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY No 84¢ $12 25h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 87¢ $7 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -31.7% -38.2% 44% 33% -30.7%
≤30d 90 -5.0% -14.0% 56% 29% -27.9%
≤90d 90 -5.0% -14.0% 56% 29% -27.9%
all 90 -5.0% -14.0% 56% 29% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 29% -27.9%
10% -22.2% 12% -34.8%
15% -29.8% 3% -41.1%
20% -36.6% 3% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.33 · official $6.34 (match) · 217 history records