Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:46:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3c15…35ae sports 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 143d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$168,329 (-35%) realized −$168,120 · open −$209
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%72W / 103L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,979per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$2,509est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$681now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67,369
7 days−$83,448
14 days−$70,808
30 days−$81,289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$111,061
other 9% −$21,917
world 1% −$674
politics 0% −$17
economics 0% −$3
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -62.7% -66.3% 16% 16% -78.6%
≤30d 50 -18.3% -26.0% 34% 24% -63.9%
≤90d 123 -10.4% -18.9% 41% 33% -39.3%
all 175 -15.0% -23.1% 41% 35% -42.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 35% -42.9%
10% -30.5% 30% -48.3%
15% ← realistic here -37.2% 25% -53.3%
20% -43.3% 20% -57.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$4,500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,545 vs −$3,034 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$681
Realized−$168,120
Unrealized−$209
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses72 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$2,509
Open positions3
Markets (closed)175 / 163
History coverage143d ⚠
Avg bet$2,979
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $530 $435 −$95 (-18%)
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 71¢ 69¢ $139 $136 −$4 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $220 $110 −$110 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Burnley FC vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-01? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Nets vs. Bulls Jun 21 $3,100 −$3,100 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder Jun 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Pacers vs. Pistons Jun 21 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Lakers vs. Bulls Jun 21 $566 −$566 -100%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Jun 21 $980 −$980 -100%
Rockets vs. Pistons Jun 21 $8,590 −$8,590 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 21 $15,700 −$15,700 -100%
Kings vs. Cavaliers Jun 21 $5,700 −$5,700 -100%
Hornets vs. Nuggets Jun 21 $1,575 −$1,575 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Jun 21 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
Celtics vs. Hawks Jun 21 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Jun 21 $13,700 −$13,700 -100%
Jazz vs. Mavericks Jun 21 $4,150 −$4,150 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $400 −$303 -76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,125 +$375 +33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $730 +$270 +37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15,199 −$15,199 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $900 −$420 -47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,000 −$437 -44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7,920 +$4,080 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10,500 −$10,500 -100%
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $139 −$3 -2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3,600 +$6,400 +178%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$298 +292%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $200 −$115 -58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $104 +$146 +142%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $108 −$38 -35%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $390 +$30 +8%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $100 +$271 +270%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $100 +$118 +117%
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $74 +$1 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $340 +$160 +47%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $8,099 +$6,899 +85%
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $197 −$20 -10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4,140 +$4,860 +117%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $330 +$30 +9%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 05 $249 −$37 -15%
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? Jun 05 $16 −$2 -10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $3,150 −$3,150 -100%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 02 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 01 $197 −$6 -3%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 01 $617 −$14 -2%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 01 $86 −$27 -31%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31? May 31 $25 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $9,250 −$7,250 -78%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 27 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 26 $7 −$2 -26%
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $97 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $8 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $6 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $47 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $30 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $750 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $6 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $30 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $30 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $13 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $4 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $21 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $29 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $41 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $27 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $24 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $60 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $657 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $73 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2,379 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $34 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $148 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $680.51 · official $680.53 (match) · 3500 history records