Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3C 0x3c15…45a0 sports 720 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+0%) realized +$340 · open −$280
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +91% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%327W / 409L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$278est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,280
7 days−$1,952
14 days−$219
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$995
other 14% +$302
politics 11% +$1,299
crypto 1% −$53
tech 1% +$11
culture 0% −$36
world 0% +$9
economics 0% +$50
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+72.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 228 +51.1% +36.7% 28% 22% -44.4%
≤30d 319 +64.5% +48.8% 39% 31% -10.2%
≤90d 736 +90.8% +72.7% 44% 36% -13.0%
all 736 +90.8% +72.7% 44% 36% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +72.7% 36% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here +56.1% 32% -21.4%
15% +41.0% 29% -29.0%
20% +27.2% 25% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +91% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +110% → late +71% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$26 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$2,193
Realized+$340
Unrealized−$280
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses327 / 409
Est. fees paid−$278
Open positions147
Markets (closed)736 / 720
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 147 History 736 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicki Minaj release a new song in 2026? Yes 76¢ 89¢ $112 $132 +$19 (+17%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Under 97¢ 97¢ $117 $116 −$1 (-0%)
Will Kevin Hern be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $94 $97 +$3 (+3%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Yes 81¢ 92¢ $84 $96 +$12 (+15%)
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $45 $91 +$46 (+101%)
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? No 86¢ 93¢ $77 $84 +$7 (+9%)
Will Georgia win the 2026 College World Series? No 26¢ 96¢ $15 $58 +$42 (+277%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland West Indies 79¢ 80¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+1%)
Will Texas win the 2026 College World Series? No 48¢ 95¢ $24 $47 +$23 (+96%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 56¢ 50¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? Yes 12¢ 30¢ $17 $42 +$25 (+147%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Pacquiao 35¢ 38¢ $40 $42 +$3 (+6%)
Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? No 89¢ 87¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island? Yes 14¢ 47¢ $10 $35 +$25 (+235%)
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $2 $34 +$32 (+1624%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 Over 85¢ 83¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Under 94¢ 95¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anne Parelkar be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? No 90¢ 100¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+11%)
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? No 81¢ 90¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+12%)
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? No 32¢ 32¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 30¢ 22¢ $34 $26 −$8 (-25%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Argentina 97¢ 97¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Under 36¢ 40¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 349 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Beijing Royal Fighters Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Paper Rex win Masters Santiago 2026? Jun 16 $16 +$35 +220%
Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will "In This Short Life - Devony Smith" win Best Classical Solo Vocal Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Qingdao Eagles vs. Jiangsu Dragons Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-03-30? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +245%
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE PLAYERS Ch Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Zhejiang Golden Bulls vs. Beijing Ducks Jun 16 $1 $0 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Jeff Bezos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Georgetown Hoyas vs. St. John's Red Storm (W) Jun 16 $86 −$86 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Gold Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-03-31? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +112%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (W) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
DEL: Iserlohn Roosters vs. ERC Ingolstadt Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31? Jun 16 $0 −$1 -151%
AHL: Lehigh Valley Phantoms vs. Bridgeport Islanders Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - Journ Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
KHL: Metallurg Magnitogorsk vs. Amur Khabarovsk Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "Sentimental Value" be nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Jun 16 $2 +$2 +102%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
AHL: Springfield Thunderbirds vs. Providence Bruins Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jun 16 $4 −$25 -560%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challen Jun 16 $0 +$10 +11197%
Will Peter Hujar's Day win Best Feature at the 41st Film Independent S Jun 16 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Damian Lillard win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest? Jun 16 $86 −$86 -100%
Will OL Lyonnes win on 2026-03-24? Jun 16 $93 −$97 -104%
Stetson Hatters vs. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
NL: Fribourg-Gotteron vs. Rapperswil-Jona Lakers Jun 16 $144 −$144 -100%
KHL: SKA St. Petersburg vs. Spartak Moscow Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Peru win on 2026-03-31? Jun 16 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83r Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Lipscomb Bisons vs. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (W) Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
La Union vs. Ferro Carril Oeste Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Pallacanestro Cantu vs. Napoli Basket Jun 16 $6 $0 -8%
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature at the 2026 Critics Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
KHL: Severstal Cherepovets vs. Torpedo Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Madagascar vs. Equatorial Guinea end in a draw? Jun 16 $62 −$84 -137%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Barcelona Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
KHL: Torpedo vs. Sibir Novosibirsk Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Harvard Crimson vs. Columbia Lions (W) Jun 16 $8 −$9 -118%
AHL: Hartford Wolf Pack vs. Charlotte Checkers Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 Six Nations championship? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Tianjin Pioneers vs. Shenzhen Leopards Jun 16 $14 −$13 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on March 22 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Texas A&M Aggies be the #8 seed in the 2025-2026 College Foot Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary at the 41st Fi Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
AHL: Lehigh Valley Phantoms vs. Charlotte Checkers Jun 16 $17 −$16 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? BUY No 40¢ $0 33m
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY No 42¢ $10 2h
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY Yes 52¢ $17 2h
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY No 52¢ $16 2h
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY No 81¢ $24 2h
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $26 3h
Australia to score first vs. United States? BUY No 76¢ $4 3h
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY No 67¢ $19 5h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 5h
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY No 58¢ $3 5h
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY No 59¢ $18 5h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 35¢ $6 6h
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $22 7h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY Yes 48¢ $14 8h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY Yes 48¢ $14 8h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $26 8h
Will Georgia win the 2026 College World Series? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 8h
Will Georgia win the 2026 College World Series? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 8h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will Georgia win the 2026 College World Series? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 8h
Will Georgia win the 2026 College World Series? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9h
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $26 9h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 45¢ $3 9h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 32¢ $3 9h
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? BUY No 31¢ $9 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,193.45 · official $2,203.78 (match) · 3500 history records