Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:51:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c15…9528 other 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate90%158W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$41
crypto 22% −$15
world 13% +$13
tech 9% $0
sports 5% +$52
politics 4% −$1
finance 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 15 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 88 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 3% -6.7%
all 176 -4.3% -13.4% 90% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 12% -9.3%
10% -21.7% 9% -18.0%
15% -29.2% 7% -25.9%
20% -36.2% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses158 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)176 / 177
History coverage557d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $224 $225 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $209 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $180 +$3 +1%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 31 $28 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 29 $7 $0 +1%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $183 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $181 +$3 +2%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $149 +$33 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $147 +$2 +1%
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $147 +$1 +0%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 06 $33 $0 +0%
Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 06 $135 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 04 $31 +$4 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April? May 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April? May 01 $6 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $36 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 01 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April? May 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $1 $0 +0%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 me May 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $460 end of April? May 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 01 $6 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 28 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 98¢ $224 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $209 25d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 100¢ $28 26d
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 98¢ $180 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 30d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 31d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $183 31d
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $181 37d
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $149 40d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 41d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 99¢ $147 41d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 46d
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 99¢ $147 46d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $5 46d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $2 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 47d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $2 47d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $4 48d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 49d
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 51d
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 52d
Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $135 52d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $2 53d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 53d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 53d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.94 · official $224.94 (match) · 372 history records