Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3c14…a20a other 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,073 (-3%) realized −$1,192 · open +$119
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate81%42W / 10L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$632per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$1,413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days+$400
14 days+$790
30 days+$1,322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$1,004
crypto 38% −$2,008
sports 4% −$106
finance 3% +$275
weather 3% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +18.9% +7.6% 82% 76% +1.4%
≤30d 34 +12.0% +1.3% 79% 71% +4.6%
≤90d 34 +12.0% +1.3% 79% 71% +4.6%
all 52 +6.3% -3.9% 81% 56% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 56% -11.8%
10% -13.1% 31% -20.3%
15% -21.5% 19% -28.0%
20% -29.2% 8% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,124) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$487 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$1,413
Realized−$1,192
Unrealized+$119
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses42 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage278d
Avg bet$632
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 78¢ 84¢ $1,100 $1,188 +$88 (+8%)
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Under 65¢ 76¢ $194 $225 +$31 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 22 $198 +$23 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $299 +$94 +31%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $3 −$2 -96%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $285 +$17 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $359 −$356 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $292 +$67 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $217 +$75 +34%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $127 +$89 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $106 +$22 +21%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 18 $89 +$16 +18%
Tomáš Chorý: 1+ goals Jun 18 $64 +$25 +40%
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $47 +$17 +36%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $49 −$2 -4%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $23 +$25 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? Jun 16 $1,129 +$275 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $410 +$370 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $191 +$21 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $246 +$115 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $254 +$123 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $102 −$52 -51%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $105 −$99 -94%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $29 −$27 -94%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $201 +$39 +20%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 6? Jun 07 $566 +$81 +14%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $501 +$66 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $464 +$36 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $430 +$34 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $450 −$21 -5%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $394 +$57 +14%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $340 +$54 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $285 +$55 +19%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $216 +$69 +32%
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? Dec 15 $938 −$938 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $785 +$153 +20%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $1,553 −$768 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 15? Dec 15 $1,523 +$30 +2%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $1,462 +$61 +4%
Will FC Metz win on 2025-12-13? Dec 14 $1,331 +$132 +10%
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2025-12-12? Dec 12 $1,265 +$65 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $1,169 +$96 +8%
XRP Up or Down - December 11, 6PM ET Dec 12 $1,124 +$46 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 2PM ET Dec 11 $1,061 +$63 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Dec 11 $1,013 +$48 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 11? Dec 11 $973 +$40 +4%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $718 +$256 +36%
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 in September? Sep 20 $2,603 −$2,603 -100%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-20? Sep 20 $1,961 +$642 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on Septembe Sep 19 $1,747 +$214 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France to score first vs. Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $221 2m
France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 89¢ $198 1h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $196 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $393 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $299 30h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes $3 30h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $302 30h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? BUY No 71¢ $359 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $292 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $291 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $217 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $217 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $127 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $128 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $106 3d
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals BUY No 84¢ $89 4d
Tomáš Chorý: 1+ goals BUY No 71¢ $64 4d
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $47 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 63¢ $47 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $49 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $49 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $23 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 6d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $1,110 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $285 6d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? SELL No 97¢ $1,404 6d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? BUY No 77¢ $1,129 11d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $779 12d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $102 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,413.39 · official $1,401.45 (match) · 125 history records