Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3c12…405d sports 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,953 (+13%) realized +$5,227 · open −$1,274
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$641per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$8,641now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 23% +$267
crypto 23% +$1,526
politics 21% −$122
sports 16% −$58
finance 15% +$248
other 1% +$843
tech 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 +119.0% +98.1% 50% 50% +274.7%
all 38 -8.4% -17.1% 53% 34% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 34% +7.7%
10% -25.0% 26% -2.6%
15% -32.3% 18% -12.0%
20% -38.9% 11% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +314% too few recent
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,068) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$62 · ×4.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.52 per $1 lost it wins $4.52
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$8,641
Realized+$5,227
Unrealized−$1,274
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions8
Markets (closed)38 / 46
History coverage217d
Avg bet$641
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 81¢ $2,000 $3,224 +$1,224 (+61%)
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $880 $870 −$10 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $880 $870 −$10 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 57¢ $855 $862 +$7 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 19¢ $2,000 $776 −$1,224 (-61%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $684 $678 −$6 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 47¢ 46¢ $564 $558 −$6 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance Ecuador 39¢ 38¢ $468 $450 −$18 (-4%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 24¢ $360 $352 −$8 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 27 $260 +$879 +338%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 10? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Mar 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Fartcoin hit $0.7 by December 31? Mar 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Mar 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 12 $1,068 +$32 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 11? Feb 11 $220 +$7 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? Feb 09 $2,473 +$615 +25%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 07 $1,260 +$40 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 6? Feb 06 $1,278 +$18 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 4? Feb 04 $350 −$349 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $10 +$7 +74%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2? Jan 31 $108 −$34 -31%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $920 +$1,076 +117%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $50 −$4 -7%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 28 $2,931 −$238 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 26? Jan 26 $1,530 −$390 -26%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 25 $1,650 +$450 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 23? Jan 25 $140 +$60 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 22? Jan 22 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 21? Jan 22 $702 +$198 +28%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 21 $1,062 +$17 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 18? Jan 19 $1,200 +$800 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 17? Jan 18 $1,680 +$320 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 16? Jan 17 $1,460 +$540 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 15? Jan 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 05 $10 +$4 +37%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? Jan 05 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Dec 23 $47 +$2 +5%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 03 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 01 $2 $0 -0%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance BUY Ecuador 39¢ $477 1h
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $895 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $368 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $895 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $573 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $693 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $866 1h
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 63d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL No 71¢ $533 63d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL No 78¢ $462 70d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL No 78¢ $123 70d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 92¢ $736 137d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 11? SELL Down 38¢ $27 138d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 11? SELL Down 38¢ $141 138d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 11? SELL Down 39¢ $11 138d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 11? SELL Down 39¢ $49 138d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 11? BUY Down 37¢ $220 138d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 10? BUY Down 72¢ $7 139d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 10? BUY Down 71¢ $3 139d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? SELL Down 95¢ $135 140d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? SELL Down 95¢ $2,334 140d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? BUY Down 61¢ $6 140d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? BUY Down 75¢ $2 140d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? BUY Down 75¢ $750 140d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? BUY Down 75¢ $748 140d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? BUY Down 59¢ $347 140d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? SELL Up 62¢ $366 140d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? SELL Up 62¢ $6 140d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? SELL Up 62¢ $12 140d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? SELL Up 62¢ $29 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,640.88 · official $8,641.00 (match) · 532 history records