Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:45:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c11…33c9
weather · 870 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$793 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$854 · open −$62
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$347
Realized+$854
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses548 / 317
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions14
Markets (closed)865 / 870
History coverage144d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 14 History 865 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$110
14 days−$122
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? No 55¢ 100¢ $33 $60 +$27 (+81%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 78¢ 90¢ $39 $45 +$6 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 39¢ 42¢ $39 $42 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 65¢ 64¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? No 53¢ 52¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? No 69¢ 65¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? No 76¢ 56¢ $38 $28 −$10 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? No 75¢ 76¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? No 66¢ 42¢ $33 $21 −$12 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? No 78¢ 38¢ $32 $16 −$16 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $24 $7 −$17 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? No 59¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 18? No 78¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? No 73¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 16? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29? No 49¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 9? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 1? No 73¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 2? No 55¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 57°F or below on June Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 +$10 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$20 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $7 +$8 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $24 +$7 +28%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $7 +$8 +123%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$9 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 +$11 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $41 +$163 +401%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $41 +$13 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 +$13 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $34 +$11 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 +$18 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $34 +$16 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$15 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 +$42 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 −$4 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 +$16 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $41 −$36 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $44 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$6 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$15 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 12 $33 +$12 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$8 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $42 +$21 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$9 +26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $30 +$37 +122%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $60 +$17 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $124 −$76 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $39 +$21 +53%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $34 −$8 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$10 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$23 +63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $39 +$26 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $38 −$14 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$40 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 78% −$1,539
world 14% +$2,061
other 4% +$632
sports 2% −$114
crypto 2% −$199
tech 0% +$37
finance 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $35 25m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 39¢ $40 31m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $39 32m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $50 58m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $64 58m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $15 58m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 94¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $33 1h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 53¢ $35 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $34 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $38 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $34 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $49 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 59¢ $36 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $204 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $54 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? BUY No 81¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 72¢ $24 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $24 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 319 +0.2% -9.3% 61% 58% -10.0%
≤30d 740 +0.1% -9.5% 63% 59% -9.6%
≤90d 826 -2.1% -11.4% 62% 58% -9.1%
all 865 -0.6% -10.1% 63% 59% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 59% -8.1%
10% -18.7% 41% -16.9%
15% -26.6% 25% -24.9%
20% -33.8% 15% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.96 · official $346.96 (match) · 2769 history records