Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c11…9b33 sports 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 258d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$745 (+1%) realized +$1,216 · open −$471
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%91W / 148L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$609per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$443est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$471now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,021
7 days+$6,347
14 days+$6,347
30 days+$6,405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$10,211
other 23% −$8,676
culture 22% +$1,578
world 11% −$208
politics 5% −$4,363
tech 3% +$3,731
crypto 0% −$363
finance 0% −$174
economics 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -8.4% -17.1% 47% 44% +5.2%
≤30d 37 -6.7% -15.6% 49% 46% +5.3%
≤90d 85 -19.9% -27.6% 40% 31% -10.8%
all 239 -9.2% -17.8% 38% 31% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 31% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 29% -16.8%
15% -32.9% 25% -24.9%
20% -39.5% 23% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$702) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$608 vs −$361 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$471
Realized+$1,216
Unrealized−$471
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses91 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$443
Open positions3
Markets (closed)239 / 242
History coverage258d ⚠
Avg bet$609
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 22¢ $51 $324 +$274 (+540%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes 38¢ $870 $124 −$746 (-86%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $22 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1,343 −$1,343 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $620 −$238 -38%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $373 +$168 +45%
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? Jun 17 $434 +$81 +19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $460 −$460 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $290 −$290 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $676 +$2,097 +310%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,200 −$1,140 -95%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $510 +$1,270 +249%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,230 +$2,720 +122%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,880 +$1,060 +56%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $980 +$20 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $270 −$270 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $906 −$906 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,490 −$1,490 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,110 −$521 -47%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $850 +$150 +18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $179 −$178 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,460 +$1,420 +97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,596 +$2,281 +143%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,720 −$1,720 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $790 −$790 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,240 −$1,240 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $730 −$730 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,220 −$1,220 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $3,906 +$6,083 +156%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3,778 +$1,170 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,836 +$1,619 +57%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2,083 +$890 +43%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 12 $245 +$127 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $570 −$560 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $567 +$353 +62%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $12 +$3 +22%
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? May 19 $110 +$58 +53%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 13 $1,840 +$178 +10%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $297 −$297 -100%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 May 07 $207 +$15 +7%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? May 07 $75 −$9 -12%
Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April? May 07 $3 +$2 +96%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $1,734 −$1,720 -99%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 30 $501 −$495 -99%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 30 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 30 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 30 $86 −$86 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 30 $468 −$124 -26%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $264 +$83 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $57 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $0 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $14 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $13 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $6 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 40¢ $500 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes $382 1h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $137 1h
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $59 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $17 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $733 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $36 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $33 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $29 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $47 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $32 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $470.71 · official $470.71 (match) · 3500 history records