Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3C 0x3c10…76de world 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$938 (+35%) realized +$943 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +156% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +132% what you keep after slip
Net edge+132%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$969
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$10
other 36% −$26
sports 3% +$948
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+131.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.6% -12.7% 0% 0% -12.7%
≤30d 4 +474.1% +419.4% 25% 25% +127.4%
≤90d 11 +156.3% +131.9% 27% 18% +22.9%
all 11 +156.3% +131.9% 27% 18% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +131.9% 18% +22.9%
10% +109.7% 18% +11.1%
15% +89.4% 9% +0.4%
20% +70.9% 9% -9.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +156% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$331 vs −$11 · ×30.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.55 per $1 lost it wins $18.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$943
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage65d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? Yes $49 $44 −$5 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Jun 22 $87 −$3 -4%
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $49 $0 +0%
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5) May 26 $51 +$972 +1900%
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? May 24 $453 $0 -0%
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? May 22 $478 −$26 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $476 +$4 +1%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? May 15 $471 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? May 13 $472 $0 +0%
Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5) Apr 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $55 +$15 +28%
Spread: Kocaelispor (-2.5) Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $24 1h
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $25 1h
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $42 1h
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $41 1h
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 2h
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $44 2h
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $24 7d
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 7d
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $25 7d
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $24 7d
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5) BUY AD Ceuta FC $26 29d
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5) BUY AD Ceuta FC $25 29d
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $453 29d
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $453 29d
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $452 31d
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $478 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $480 34d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $476 34d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $471 38d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $471 38d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $472 40d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $472 40d
Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5) BUY Aarhus GF $8 63d
Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5) BUY Aarhus GF $8 63d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 63d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $18 63d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $18 63d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $18 63d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $18 63d
Spread: Kocaelispor (-2.5) BUY Kocaelispor $8 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.62 · official $43.62 (match) · 36 history records