Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c0e…c081 world 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 516d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate39%28W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$9
other 23% −$4
politics 15% $0
sports 8% −$4
economics 7% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.6% -8.1% 43% 14% -9.0%
≤30d 20 +4.8% -5.1% 45% 10% -8.5%
≤90d 64 +1.0% -8.6% 38% 3% -9.1%
all 72 -1.1% -10.5% 39% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 7% -9.5%
10% -19.1% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

516d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses28 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 75
History coverage516d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-65%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $19 +$2 +13%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $46 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 $0 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $70 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $56 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $40 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $46 −$3 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $36 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $7 +$6 +90%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $33 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $53 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $60 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $59 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $29 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the Mar 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 28 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $42 43m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $5 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $6 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $46 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $45 17h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 27h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 27h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $18 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $0 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $43 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $43 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $27 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $40 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $8 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $32 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $17 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $23 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $40 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $22 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.40 · official $0.00 (match) · 263 history records