Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c0d…94e2 crypto 42 markets active 11h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$38 (-5%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day118.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$124
crypto 25% +$31
other 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +0.2% -9.3% 26% 21% -35.2%
≤30d 42 +0.2% -9.3% 26% 21% -35.2%
≤90d 42 +0.2% -9.3% 26% 21% -35.2%
all 42 +0.2% -9.3% 26% 21% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 21% -35.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 19% -41.4%
15% -25.9% 19% -47.0%
20% -33.2% 10% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 31
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day118.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $34 −$10 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$8 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 −$13 -25%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $91 −$28 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$9 +44%
XRP Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$22 +425%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$48 +4469%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +2%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$10 +68%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $36 +$16 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $142 −$13 -9%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $91 −$7 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 13¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 15¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 26¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 50¢ $12 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 40¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 48¢ $14 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 9¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 11¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 22¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $18 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 37¢ $18 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $10 13h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 37¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $40 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records