Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:31:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3C 0x3c0c…fbb7 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$36,012 (+28%) realized +$35,082 · open +$930
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate63%17W / 10L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$3,723per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$11,015now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$995
14 days+$2,038
30 days−$16,031
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$6,682
politics 32% +$18,296
other 4% +$13,015
sports 2% +$1,437
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +68.6% +52.6% 33% 33% +138.1%
≤30d 8 -15.5% -23.5% 25% 25% -71.6%
≤90d 27 +33.0% +20.3% 63% 52% +24.4%
all 27 +33.0% +20.3% 63% 52% +24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.3% 52% +24.4%
10% ← realistic here +8.8% 52% +12.5%
15% -1.7% 48% +1.6%
20% -11.3% 48% -8.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$5,375) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +63% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,487 vs −$2,078 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.85 per $1 lost it wins $2.85
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$11,015
Realized+$35,082
Unrealized+$930
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses17 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions7
Markets (closed)27 / 34
History coverage94d
Avg bet$3,723
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 40¢ 72¢ $3,051 $5,520 +$2,469 (+81%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 59¢ 60¢ $2,500 $2,562 +$62 (+2%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 36¢ $1,724 $987 −$737 (-43%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $900 $884 −$16 (-2%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 66¢ 35¢ $1,000 $531 −$469 (-47%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 67¢ 38¢ $874 $491 −$383 (-44%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 53¢ $37 $40 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $600 +$2,170 +362%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $4,492 −$1,026 -23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $267 −$149 -56%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $454 −$393 -86%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $2,532 +$1,437 +57%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $671 −$551 -82%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 26 $17,167 −$17,167 -100%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 24 $403 −$352 -87%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $23,216 +$12,155 +52%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 11 $535 −$535 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 04 $6,223 +$267 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $800 +$842 +105%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $8,444 +$8,304 +98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $16,055 +$4,687 +29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $600 +$414 +69%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $2,284 +$198 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $1,099 +$19 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $541 +$1,253 +232%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $500 +$411 +82%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $1,248 +$1,201 +96%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 19 $500 −$313 -63%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $3,254 +$3,907 +120%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 11 $1,803 +$2,594 +144%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 11 $5,375 +$13,012 +242%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $407 −$290 -71%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 25 $10,063 +$6,409 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $400 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $700 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 44¢ $100 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $400 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $800 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $100 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $100 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 22¢ $560 14h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $297 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $307 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $100 32h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 72¢ $300 39h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 75¢ $300 39h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 78¢ $200 2d
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 2d
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 2d
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $2,770 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 67¢ $300 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 38¢ $2,768 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 38¢ $100 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 38¢ $100 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 38¢ $100 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 38¢ $100 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 36¢ $100 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,015.11 · official $11,026.23 (match) · 540 history records