Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c0b…2ede world 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate30%24W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$10
politics 20% +$8
other 17% $0
sports 14% −$22
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.4% -4.6% 50% 33% -8.8%
≤30d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 7% -8.6%
≤90d 76 -0.5% -9.9% 30% 3% -9.3%
all 80 -1.9% -11.2% 30% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses24 / 56
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage526d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +20%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $49 +$3 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $37 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $97 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $31 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $42 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$1 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $37 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $135 +$4 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $103 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $63 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $4 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $75 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $71 +$4 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $63 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $23 $0 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $29 $0 -0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 19 $1 $0 -36%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 19 $30 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $59 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $61 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $198 −$2 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $58 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $110 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $27 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $26 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $37 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $18 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $7 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $14 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $41 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $21 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $24 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $42 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $3 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $28 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 37¢ $31 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.77 · official $36.77 (match) · 329 history records