Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c0a…fb27 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 388d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$4
other 37% +$1
politics 13% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 11 -2.4% -11.7% 36% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 11 -2.4% -11.7% 36% 0% -10.7%
all 26 -0.6% -10.1% 46% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

388d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage388d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $43 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $4 $0 -12%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $16 −$3 -19%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $23 +$1 +6%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $46 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $4 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Starmer out before July? Jun 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $23m or more but less than $26m openi Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 28? Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on June 6? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 01 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 30 $2 $0 +7%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? May 29 $21 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? May 29 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $42 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 98¢ $43 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $3 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $3 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 71¢ $12 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 71¢ $13 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $23 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $46 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $35 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $11 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $38 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $21 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $17 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $18 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $3 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $16 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $5 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $4 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $4 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $3 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $0 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $3 19d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $50 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records