Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3c09…f399 sports 520 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,202 (-9%) realized −$4,309 · open +$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%255W / 246L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day40.8pace
Fees−$582est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5,405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$250
7 days+$199
14 days+$315
30 days−$1,014
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$4,604
other 13% −$37
politics 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -2.7% -11.9% 54% 44% -3.6%
≤30d 254 -8.3% -17.0% 52% 44% -14.3%
≤90d 501 -14.0% -22.2% 51% 43% -20.6%
all 501 -14.0% -22.2% 51% 43% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 43% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 31% -28.2%
15% -36.5% 23% -35.1%
20% -42.7% 18% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$66 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$5,405
Realized−$4,309
Unrealized+$107
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses255 / 246
Est. fees paid−$582
Open positions19
Markets (closed)501 / 520
History coverage51d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 501 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $2,029 $2,058 +$29 (+1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 98¢ $1,665 $1,713 +$48 (+3%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 98¢ $569 $585 +$17 (+3%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 98¢ $180 $195 +$15 (+8%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $184 $185 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 66¢ $116 $133 +$17 (+15%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 54¢ 100¢ $54 $100 +$46 (+85%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 97¢ 98¢ $97 $98 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 64¢ 100¢ $56 $87 +$31 (+56%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $63 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 68¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 91¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 36¢ 38¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 45¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 45¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 222 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +17%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $105 +$7 +7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $61 +$77 +127%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $153 −$153 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $106 +$94 +89%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $42 +$78 +186%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $181 +$97 +54%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $55 +$65 +119%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $154 −$38 -25%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $52 +$81 +156%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $67 +$82 +122%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $4 +$10 +223%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $79 +$153 +194%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $86 +$14 +16%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $204 +$44 +22%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $240 −$121 -51%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $42 +$36 +86%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $59 +$41 +70%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $65 −$43 -67%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $70 +$76 +108%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $64 −$60 -94%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $89 −$37 -42%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $87 −$86 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $114 +$86 +75%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $174 −$174 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $37 +$75 +206%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $74 +$86 +117%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $142 +$21 +15%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $124 −$124 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $54 −$54 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $43 +$2 +5%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $245 +$61 +25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $69 −$69 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $66 +$34 +52%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $59 +$41 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $61 45m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $7 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $69 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 91¢ $9 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $31 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 64¢ $56 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 57¢ $57 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $54 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $55 4h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $36 7h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $27 7h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 59¢ $30 7h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 56¢ $28 7h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 55¢ $27 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 54¢ $27 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $13 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $21 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $15 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $54 8h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $34 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 9h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $61 20h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $19 22h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $29 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $4 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $6 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,404.88 · official $5,404.67 (match) · 2328 history records