Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3C 0x3c06…aa42 sports 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$158 (+0%) realized +$84 · open +$74
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%45W / 53L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$633est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,622
14 days−$1,488
30 days−$2,233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,092
other 5% +$905
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -27.9% -34.8% 33% 31% -32.1%
≤30d 79 -16.1% -24.1% 41% 39% -14.8%
≤90d 98 -4.9% -13.9% 46% 44% -9.8%
all 98 -4.9% -13.9% 46% 44% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 44% -9.8%
10% -22.2% 44% -18.4%
15% -29.7% 44% -26.3%
20% -36.6% 38% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$508) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$360 vs −$311 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$324
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses45 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$633
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage49d
Avg bet$409
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Shelton 54¢ 70¢ $250 $324 +$74 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $1,217 −$1,200 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $507 −$234 -46%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,216 −$470 -39%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $204 −$68 -34%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $508 +$276 +54%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $305 +$9 +3%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $1,422 −$149 -10%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $828 −$35 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $507 −$507 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$95 -92%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1,014 +$804 +79%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $408 −$400 -98%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $506 +$313 +62%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $611 −$600 -98%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $711 −$700 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $255 −$250 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $218 +$353 +162%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 12 $566 +$708 +125%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $506 −$500 -99%
Set Handicap: Jones (-1.5) vs Romano (+1.5) Jun 12 $506 −$500 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $253 −$250 -99%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 12 $253 −$250 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $152 +$163 +107%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $456 +$398 +87%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $153 −$150 -98%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Set Handicap: Mannarino (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 12 $18 +$32 +180%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $507 +$386 +76%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $122 −$120 -99%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $254 +$246 +97%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Jerusalem Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $355 +$270 +76%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $509 +$648 +127%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $507 −$500 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $253 +$178 +70%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $202 −$200 -99%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $506 +$323 +64%
Elitzur Netanya vs. Ironi Ness Ziona Jun 09 $253 +$205 +81%
Hapoel Jerusalem vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 09 $153 −$150 -98%
Alba Berlin vs. Brose Bamberg Jun 09 $255 −$250 -98%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $102 +$107 +105%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1,010 +$482 +48%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 09 $204 −$204 -100%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1,215 +$866 +71%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $141 +$62 +44%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 07 $508 +$623 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Shelton 54¢ $253 1h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 50¢ $203 2d
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 53¢ $1,014 2d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 29¢ $273 2d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 52¢ $507 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $746 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $135 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $204 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,216 2d
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 44¢ $305 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $415 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $369 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $508 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $314 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 2d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 10¢ $103 2d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Maria Sakkari 48¢ $1,212 2d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Maria Sakkari 47¢ $19 2d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 42¢ $305 2d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 56¢ $507 3d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 50¢ $508 3d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Katarzyna Kawa 46¢ $107 3d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 48¢ $116 3d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Lucia Bronzetti 64¢ $437 3d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 29¢ $204 3d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Katarzyna Kawa 23¢ $250 3d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 45¢ $508 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 56¢ $507 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $8 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $103 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.62 · official $323.62 (match) · 190 history records