Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
3C 0x3c05…e48e other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-7%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$235
7 days+$291
14 days+$204
30 days+$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$283
sports 18% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +114.2% +93.8% 100% 100% +116.1%
≤30d 9 -11.9% -20.3% 44% 44% +32.6%
≤90d 9 -11.9% -20.3% 44% 44% +32.6%
all 9 -11.9% -20.3% 44% 44% +32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 44% +32.6%
10% -28.0% 44% +19.9%
15% -34.9% 44% +8.3%
20% -41.3% 22% -2.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +46% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$27 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage13d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $98 +$235 +240%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $67 +$35 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $47 +$21 +46%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $52 −$51 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $94 +$47 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $98 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $67 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $47 7d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $52 9d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 11d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $94 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.59 · official $330.59 (match) · 14 history records