Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c04…63dd world 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+2%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate27%28W / 75L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$113
politics 12% −$50
finance 4% +$48
economics 3% −$33
other 3% +$1
sports 2% −$25
culture 1% −$7
crypto 0% −$7
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 50% -36.7%
≤90d 91 -33.2% -39.5% 29% 16% -6.2%
all 103 -33.8% -40.1% 27% 16% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 16% -7.6%
10% -45.9% 10% -16.5%
15% -51.1% 9% -24.5%
20% -55.9% 7% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses28 / 75
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage98d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 92¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? Yes $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President by June 30? May 23 $138 −$49 -36%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 23 $16 +$3 +18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 12 $73 −$19 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $65 +$95 +147%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? May 09 $1 +$1 +66%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 09 $20 −$15 -73%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 08 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $73 +$2 +2%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 05 $8 −$2 -21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 03 $17 −$6 -34%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 02 $7 −$3 -42%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $158 +$30 +19%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 01 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $15 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 01 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $15 +$1 +6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $614 +$38 +6%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 25 $9 −$7 -80%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $28 $0 +2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Apr 23 $1 $0 -12%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 23 $6 +$5 +76%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 23 $18 +$1 +3%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 23 $7 −$4 -47%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $1 +$1 +59%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $2 $0 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this Apr 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 18 $6 +$1 +16%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $43 +$7 +16%
Will Danielle Martin win the by-election for the seat of University—Ro Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 13 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Apr 12 $3 −$2 -71%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 12 $4 $0 +11%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 10 $8 −$2 -25%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Apr 10 $9 $0 -3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $2 $0 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 08 $26 −$1 -3%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Apr 07 $3 $0 +5%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Apr 07 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Apr 07 $11 +$2 +19%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 05 $3 −$1 -29%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be grea Apr 05 $8 −$7 -91%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 04 $6 −$2 -31%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr Apr 03 $3 −$2 -55%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 02 $12 −$4 -32%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Apr 02 $26 −$12 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $2 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $2 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $2 2h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $2 6h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $2 7h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $2 9h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $2 18h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $2 18h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $2 5d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes $31 22d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes $0 22d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes $34 22d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes $24 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 29d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 30d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.47 · official $13.47 (match) · 1429 history records