Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c03…474f
crypto · 605 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$522 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$522 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$522
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses308 / 297
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)605 / 605
History coverage102d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 605 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$57
14 days−$198
30 days−$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$12 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$12 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$4 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$533
sports 3% +$10
weather 0% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $23 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 50% -29.2%
≤30d 221 -12.4% -20.8% 49% 47% -24.0%
≤90d 558 -14.7% -22.8% 48% 45% -21.5%
all 605 -4.4% -13.5% 51% 49% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 49% -18.5%
10% -21.8% 43% -26.3%
15% -29.3% 39% -33.4%
20% -36.3% 35% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1260 history records