Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3c01…d612 sports 117 markets active 12h ago coverage 198d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 198d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,361 (+1%) realized +$1,285 · open +$2,076
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate73%81W / 30L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$3,472per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$216est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$28,729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 198d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 34% +$11,243
other 29% +$2,198
sports 19% −$4,786
tech 8% +$103
world 7% +$2,601
politics 2% +$1,552
culture 1% +$229
finance 0% −$53
crypto 0% +$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.5% -5.4% 83% 67% -16.8%
≤30d 15 +0.9% -8.7% 73% 53% -10.6%
≤90d 40 -9.7% -18.3% 62% 38% -9.4%
all 111 +15.1% +4.1% 73% 43% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.1% 43% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -5.8% 26% -15.5%
15% -14.9% 14% -23.7%
20% -23.3% 11% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,803) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
22.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$352 vs −$595 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$28,729
Realized+$1,285
Unrealized+$2,076
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses81 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$216
Open positions6
Markets (closed)111 / 117
History coverage198d ⚠
Avg bet$3,472
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 73¢ 77¢ $14,551 $15,333 +$782 (+5%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $4,650 $4,668 +$18 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $4,222 $4,276 +$54 (+1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 18¢ 77¢ $458 $1,926 +$1,468 (+321%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 89¢ 74¢ $1,773 $1,490 −$283 (-16%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $1,000 $1,036 +$36 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $4,168 −$3,830 -92%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $227 +$50 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6,078 +$601 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $830 +$170 +20%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $30 +$14 +45%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $6,980 +$1,520 +22%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $780 +$260 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $8,151 −$2,835 -35%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $7,384 −$3,927 -53%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 07 $42,815 +$4,619 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $710 +$18 +3%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7,677 +$2,686 +35%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $2,391 −$626 -26%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $890 +$110 +12%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $846 +$54 +6%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $2,001 +$299 +15%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $931 +$49 +5%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $800 +$60 +8%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 May 20 $44 +$20 +45%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 19 $310 −$310 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $238 −$76 -32%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 05 $264 −$171 -65%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $539 +$41 +8%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 29 $4,550 +$450 +10%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $227 +$62 +27%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 27 $186 −$186 -100%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $250 −$200 -80%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 20 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 13 $27,176 +$1,229 +4%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $45,063 +$577 +1%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $50 −$45 -91%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $1,585 −$559 -35%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 10 $999 −$13 -1%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 08 $2,147 −$96 -4%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 05 $501 +$103 +20%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $1,199 +$430 +36%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $427 +$8 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 30 $3,396 +$631 +19%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 27 $583 +$65 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 26 $1,300 −$53 -4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 24 $508 +$60 +12%
Senators vs. Rangers Mar 24 $143 +$9 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $1,158 −$15 -1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 23 $1 $0 +24%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 23 $3 +$4 +128%
Howard Bison vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 20 $1,803 +$10 +0%
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Mar 20 $2,140 −$1,840 -86%
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 20 $985 +$15 +2%
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars Mar 19 $1,120 +$20 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $26,142 +$2,696 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $227 11h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $2,270 15h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $9 24h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $58 25h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $3 25h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $4,152 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $136 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $830 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $16 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $217 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,729.18 · official $28,729.36 (match) · 3500 history records