Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3c00…b11a crypto 919 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-1%) realized −$59 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%884W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$97
politics 5% +$4
other 3% +$8
finance 2% −$5
tech 1% +$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -0.6% -10.1% 97% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 217 +0.1% -9.5% 98% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 820 -0.7% -10.2% 97% 0% -9.7%
all 916 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 1% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 1% -10.3%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses884 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)916 / 919
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 916 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 92¢ 94¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 90¢ 44¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 97¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 19h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 95¢ $10 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $14 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $14 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.71 · official $44.71 (match) · 3500 history records