Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bff…5c18 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$908 (+2%) realized +$914 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$1,208per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$1,548
14 days−$1,548
30 days−$1,548
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$323
other 17% −$595
sports 12% +$903
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +6.9% -3.3% 37% 33% -30.0%
≤30d 30 +6.9% -3.3% 37% 33% -30.0%
≤90d 30 +6.9% -3.3% 37% 33% -30.0%
all 40 +7.5% -2.8% 52% 28% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 28% -8.4%
10% -12.1% 28% -17.1%
15% -20.6% 25% -25.1%
20% -28.4% 25% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$980) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$229 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized+$914
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage241d
Avg bet$1,208
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $371 $374 +$4 (+1%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $140 $130 −$10 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $142 −$139 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $100 −$99 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $256 +$435 +170%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $101 −$99 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $380 −$374 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $98 +$195 +199%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $120 −$117 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $354 +$246 +70%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $82 +$546 +664%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $149 +$15 +10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $397 +$253 +64%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $430 +$495 +115%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $9 +$30 +339%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $648 −$648 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $53 +$200 +374%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $400 −$400 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $400 −$400 -100%
Idaho Vandals vs. Houston Cougars Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Howard Bison vs. Michigan Wolverines Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $832 −$832 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $204 +$56 +27%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $440 +$335 +76%
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 19 $980 +$10 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Mar 19 $4,850 +$150 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Mar 19 $4,900 +$100 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 03 $4,950 +$15 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Dec 03 $7,250 +$450 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 21 $5,710 +$260 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 01 $5,444 +$387 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? Nov 01 $3,514 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Nov 01 $4,591 +$9 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 30 $1,200 +$800 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $144 36m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $376 38m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $142 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 26¢ $66 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 26¢ $34 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 91¢ $691 4h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 23¢ $101 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $256 5h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 6h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $115 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.50 · official $504.50 (match) · 331 history records