Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3bff…dc41
sports · 19 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$153 +27%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$156 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$268
Realized+$156
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions16
Markets (closed)3 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 16 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days+$156
14 days+$156
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score No 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Yes 68¢ 67¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +111%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $134 +$58 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 61% +$39
other 39% +$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes $1 48m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes $5 55m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 55m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 56m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 56m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $20 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 1h
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $107 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 21h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 100¢ $192 37h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $134 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +65.3% +49.6% 100% 100% +40.0%
≤30d 3 +65.3% +49.6% 100% 100% +40.0%
≤90d 3 +65.3% +49.6% 100% 100% +40.0%
all 3 +65.3% +49.6% 100% 100% +40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.6% 100% +40.0%
10% +35.2% 100% +26.6%
15% +22.2% 100% +14.4%
20% +10.2% 33% +3.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.45 · official $268.45 (match) · 22 history records