Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3B 0x3bfe…8a5a crypto 2285 markets active 5d ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$41 (+2%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%1207W / 766L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day85.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$39
14 days+$99
30 days+$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$348
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -22.6% -30.0% 42% 42% -30.9%
≤30d 1843 +13.7% +2.8% 62% 62% +3.4%
≤90d 1973 +12.6% +1.9% 61% 61% +2.4%
all 1973 +12.6% +1.9% 61% 61% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 61% +2.4%
10% ← realistic here -7.9% 61% -7.4%
15% -16.8% 61% -16.4%
20% -24.9% 61% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses1207 / 766
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1973 / 2285
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day85.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1973 Trades
no open positions (475 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.75 · official $47.76 (match) · 3500 history records