Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:51:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bfd…2b8c politics 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% $0
politics 29% $0
other 23% $0
economics 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 67% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 12 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 12 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.3%
all 46 -0.9% -10.3% 20% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage279d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $33 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $47 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $33 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 26 $3 $0 -7%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $3 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Sep 25 $21 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 25 $1 $0 -30%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $21 $0 -2%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $1 $0 +12%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 23 $29 $0 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Sep 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 21 $32 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 15 $32 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 13 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $33 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 21h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $17 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $17 31h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $16 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $14 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $30 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $7 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $7 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $34 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $33 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $27 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $3 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $17 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $12 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $30 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $30 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $24 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records