Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3B 0x3bfd…1610 crypto 1491 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 144d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$241 (+1%) realized +$241 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate55%960W / 785L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,199
7 days−$1,187
14 days−$1,161
30 days−$1,146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$47
sports 3% +$7
weather 0% −$36
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 323 -70.1% -73.0% 16% 10% -67.4%
≤30d 356 -60.7% -64.4% 23% 15% -47.2%
≤90d 1315 -18.6% -26.4% 53% 36% -14.4%
all 1745 -15.7% -23.7% 55% 38% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 38% -14.2%
10% -31.0% 31% -22.4%
15% -37.7% 26% -29.9%
20% -43.8% 20% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$241
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses960 / 785
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1745 / 1491
History coverage145d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1745 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +115%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$8 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $9 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $110 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $3 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records