Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3B 0x3bfa…b1b4 world 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$167 (-15%) realized −$167 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$125
14 days−$135
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$41
sports 16% −$156
other 3% +$8
crypto 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -50.0% -54.8% 25% 0% -39.2%
≤90d 7 -31.1% -37.7% 43% 29% -29.5%
all 17 -13.6% -21.9% 65% 53% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 53% -25.2%
10% -29.3% 24% -32.3%
15% -36.2% 12% -38.9%
20% -42.4% 0% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$50 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$167
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage158d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $130 −$10 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 03 $127 +$10 +8%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 May 10 $50 −$31 -63%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 22 $26 +$4 +15%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 22 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7? Mar 08 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 12 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 12 $8 +$2 +27%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 08 $124 −$124 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-03? Feb 04 $37 +$8 +20%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026? Feb 03 $20 +$7 +37%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $118 +$21 +18%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $103 +$15 +14%
Israel strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jan 12 $99 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records