Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3B 0x3bf9…5705 crypto 766 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$54 (-2%) realized −$50 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%284W / 478L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$204
sports 4% +$57
other 3% −$27
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 38% +5.7%
≤30d 106 -4.5% -13.6% 38% 36% -8.1%
≤90d 705 -14.3% -22.4% 34% 33% -28.3%
all 762 -7.2% -16.0% 37% 36% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 36% -17.0%
10% -24.0% 35% -25.0%
15% -31.4% 34% -32.2%
20% -38.1% 32% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses284 / 478
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)762 / 766
History coverage143d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 762 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 332 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$11 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$26 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$7 +662%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 1419 history records