Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:35:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

3B 0x3bf6…2e6b other 6 markets active 1d ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$13 (+6%) realized +$6 · open +$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$39per market

Trades / day2.3pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-30.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-22.8%	-30.2%	50%	50%	+5.1%
≤30d	2	-22.8%	-30.2%	50%	50%	+5.1%
≤90d	2	-22.8%	-30.2%	50%	50%	+5.1%
all	2	-22.8%	-30.2%	50%	50%	+5.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.2%	50%	+5.1%
10%	-36.8%	50%	-5.0%
15%	-42.9%	50%	-14.2%
20%	-48.5%	50%	-22.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$197

Realized+$6

Unrealized+$7

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)2 / 6

History coverage3d

Avg bet$39

Trades / day2.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	14¢	15¢	$100	$113	+$13 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$50	$47	−$3 (-6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	56¢	50¢	$30	$27	−$3 (-10%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	85¢	82¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$30	+$16	+54%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	56¢	$30	32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$47	34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$30	4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	4d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	BUY Yes	85¢	$10	4d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.57 · official $196.57 (match) · 11 history records