Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bf6…1eb0 politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% $0
other 41% −$1
crypto 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage105d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $94 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $94 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $94 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $94 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $94 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $94 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $96 $0 +0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $96 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $96 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $96 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $96 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $93 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $93 17h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $93 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $94 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $94 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 15d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $94 24d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $94 24d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 25d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 26d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 31d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 32d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 32d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $94 34d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $94 35d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 37d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 38d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $94 41d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $94 41d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $94 45d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $94 46d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $95 67d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $96 68d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 76d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 77d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $96 84d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 85d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $96 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records