Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bf5…2006 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$1
politics 34% $0
world 5% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage130d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $91 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $91 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $91 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $90 $0 +0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $92 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $92 $0 +0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 04 $92 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $92 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 16 $92 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 15 $93 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 11 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 06 $93 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $93 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $93 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $91 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $91 19h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $91 13d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $91 13d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $91 20d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $91 21d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $91 27d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $91 28d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 31d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY No 100¢ $90 33d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $90 35d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $91 36d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $91 39d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $91 40d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $92 60d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $92 60d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $92 63d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 64d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 64d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $92 66d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $92 66d
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $92 71d
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $92 72d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $92 74d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $4 75d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $88 75d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 81d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 84d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $92 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $92 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records