Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3B 0x3bf5…9e5c sports 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 625d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,450 (-3%) realized −$3,376 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%54W / 50L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,133per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,628now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days−$383
14 days−$626
30 days−$479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$3,339
sports 16% −$47
world 9% −$97
politics 1% +$56
tech 0% −$200
crypto 0% +$55
economics 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.1% -25.0% 54% 46% -20.0%
≤30d 42 -10.1% -18.7% 57% 48% -13.0%
≤90d 44 -10.2% -18.7% 57% 45% -11.1%
all 104 -12.5% -20.8% 52% 39% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 39% -12.1%
10% -28.4% 37% -20.5%
15% -35.3% 27% -28.2%
20% -41.7% 14% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$216 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

625d coverage
Net worth$1,628
Realized−$3,376
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses54 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions7
Markets (closed)104 / 111
History coverage625d
Avg bet$1,133
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,233 $1,193 −$40 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 39¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$92 +46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $202 −$128 -63%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $201 +$49 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $704 +$68 +10%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $201 +$46 +23%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$43 -84%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 −$23 -92%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 −$39 -38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $404 +$211 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $303 +$138 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $803 −$800 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $474 +$177 +37%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $201 −$149 -74%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$80 +40%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$49 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,839 +$87 +5%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 −$101 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $202 +$106 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$114 -56%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$179 -89%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $93 +$31 +33%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$264 +257%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$98 -96%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $578 −$575 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $604 +$37 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $303 +$180 +60%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $302 +$109 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,709 +$213 +12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$145 -72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $353 +$147 +42%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 22 $15,066 +$17 +0%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $101 −$24 -24%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 03 $52,958 +$247 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 Dec 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? Dec 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30? Dec 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025? Nov 29 $58 −$20 -34%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Nov 28 $10,526 +$43 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 24¢ $74 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $202 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $201 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $201 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 60¢ $177 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $923 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $239 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 12¢ $64 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 18¢ $102 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $502 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $301 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,628.44 · official $1,627.82 (match) · 720 history records