Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bf4…aa04 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$3
other 21% −$2
politics 12% +$7
crypto 6% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 8% -10.0%
≤90d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 8% -10.0%
all 40 -6.7% -15.6% 40% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 5% -9.7%
10% -23.7% 5% -18.3%
15% -31.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -37.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage475d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $39 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $46 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +33%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $20 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $65 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $6 −$2 -35%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 -4%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 27 $11 $0 -1%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Yuki Tsunoda be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $1 $0 +10%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $14 −$1 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 24 $3 −$1 -28%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Mar 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Harry Sisson apologize by Friday? Mar 20 $24 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 20 $23 $0 -1%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Mar 19 $16 +$7 +45%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on Februar Mar 02 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $16 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $18 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $19 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 46h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $17 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $20 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $40 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $40 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $33 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $3 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $37 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $3 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $16 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $20 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records