Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3bf2…70a4
world · 110 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$686 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$303 · open +$395
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,678
Realized+$303
Unrealized+$395
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses29 / 49
Open positions32
Markets (closed)78 / 110
History coverage66d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 32 History 78 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$142
14 days+$93
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 12¢ 71¢ $91 $551 +$460 (+508%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 84¢ $497 $501 +$4 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 57¢ 84¢ $261 $383 +$122 (+47%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 52¢ 59¢ $310 $354 +$44 (+14%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 78¢ $347 $312 −$35 (-10%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? No 90¢ 83¢ $325 $300 −$25 (-8%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 98¢ $181 $183 +$2 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? No 85¢ 94¢ $156 $171 +$15 (+10%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 70¢ 52¢ $209 $156 −$53 (-25%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $123 $152 +$29 (+24%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $156 $138 −$17 (-11%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 65¢ 72¢ $98 $108 +$10 (+11%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 20¢ 27¢ $51 $69 +$18 (+36%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 38¢ $90 $68 −$22 (-24%)
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $33 $42 +$8 (+25%)
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 5¢ 13¢ $16 $38 +$22 (+138%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $22 $34 +$13 (+60%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-7%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 28¢ 12¢ $42 $19 −$23 (-56%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $13 $5 −$8 (-60%)
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+137%)
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 2¢ $31 $2 −$29 (-94%)
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $310 −$37 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $114 +$51 +45%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 11 $34 +$57 +164%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 10 $17 −$16 -90%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $576 +$24 +4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombia Jun 08 $20 +$63 +320%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 04 $126 +$71 +57%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $142 −$115 -81%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? Jun 03 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $63 −$2 -3%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $633 +$67 +11%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $556 +$81 +15%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 01 $12 −$4 -36%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J May 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? May 31 $43 −$41 -95%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun May 31 $11 −$7 -60%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $47 +$92 +198%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $712 +$216 +30%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o May 23 $8 +$2 +25%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu May 23 $12 −$1 -10%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $93 −$24 -25%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 20 $223 −$201 -90%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? May 20 $8 −$2 -30%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 19 $58 −$47 -82%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27 May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 13 $4 −$2 -55%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-Ma May 12 $125 +$4 +3%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? May 10 $10 −$6 -59%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $2 +$8 +354%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? May 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 05 $20 +$170 +864%
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3 May 05 $21 +$91 +436%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1 $0 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 05 $7 +$2 +21%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1 $0 +20%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1 $0 -11%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $2 $0 -8%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? May 05 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $7 +$33 +478%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $8 +$2 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 77% +$256
other 13% +$591
politics 10% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 85¢ $40 1h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $5 1h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $50 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $147 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $39 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $94 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $40 9h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $30 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $54 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $22 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $7 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $25 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $28 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $6 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $0 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $9 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $19 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $16 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $28 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $7 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $14 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $19 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $14 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $14 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $35 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $40 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $116 13h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 75¢ $26 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +61.8% +46.4% 71% 43% +2.3%
≤30d 30 -16.7% -24.7% 37% 30% -6.7%
≤90d 78 +5.8% -4.3% 37% 31% -3.5%
all 78 +5.8% -4.3% 37% 31% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 31% -3.5%
10% -13.4% 23% -12.7%
15% -21.8% 18% -21.2%
20% -29.5% 15% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,677.73 · official $3,677.73 (match) · 708 history records