Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bef…fd86 crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$194 (-4%) realized −$194 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate86%44W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$16
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$221
other 1% +$5
tech 1% +$6
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +47.3% +33.2% 80% 20% -8.0%
≤30d 17 +43.3% +29.6% 82% 24% -6.1%
≤90d 48 +11.0% +0.4% 85% 17% -13.7%
all 51 +13.6% +2.8% 86% 20% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 20% -13.3%
10% -7.0% 12% -21.6%
15% -16.0% 8% -29.2%
20% -24.2% 6% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$58 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses44 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage136d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $71 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $69 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$3 +246%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$7 +625%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 +$9 +17%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 21 $53 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 11 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 11 $326 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2AM ET Apr 11 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 11 $300 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 10 $346 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 10 $337 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 10 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 10 $332 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6PM ET Apr 10 $327 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 10 $314 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 10 $305 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 10 $297 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5PM ET Apr 10 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 10 $294 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 10 $289 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 10 $284 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 10 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 10 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 10 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 10 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 10 $14 +$2 +12%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Apr 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 10 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 10 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 10 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 10 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 10 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 03 $2 +$3 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 4? Feb 03 $58 +$6 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $71 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 75¢ $4 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $2 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 60¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 175 history records