Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:14:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3B 0x3bef…d6e2 other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,363 (+29%) realized +$6,158 · open −$795
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +274% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +200% what you keep after slip
Net edge+200%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$1,818per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$15,401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$1,295
sports 6% +$6,658
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+238.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +274.4% +238.8% 50% 50% +355.6%
≤30d 2 +274.4% +238.8% 50% 50% +355.6%
≤90d 2 +274.4% +238.8% 50% 50% +355.6%
all 2 +274.4% +238.8% 50% 50% +355.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +238.8% 50% +355.6%
10% ← realistic here +206.4% 50% +312.0%
15% +176.8% 50% +272.2%
20% +149.6% 50% +235.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +404% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +274% · $-wt +404% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6,658 vs −$500 · ×13.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.32 per $1 lost it wins $13.32
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$15,401
Realized+$6,158
Unrealized−$795
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions8
Markets (closed)2 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,818
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 41¢ 37¢ $5,000 $4,534 −$466 (-9%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 16¢ 17¢ $3,400 $3,601 +$201 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2,420 $2,414 −$6 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1,500 $1,487 −$12 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,376 $1,371 −$5 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1,000 $939 −$61 (-6%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 8¢ 5¢ $1,000 $580 −$420 (-42%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? No 20¢ 19¢ $500 $475 −$25 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,026 +$6,658 +649%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $514 −$500 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1,037 1m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $206 2m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $103 2m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $103 2m
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $516 2m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $3,069 3m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $2,049 4m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $3,101 5m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,684 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $428 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,542 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,028 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,403 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2,048 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $514 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,026 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,400.65 · official $15,402.73 (match) · 18 history records