Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3B 0x3bea…b910 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$2
other 25% +$12
politics 21% $0
sports 10% $0
tech 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 5 +1.4% -8.2% 60% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 5 +1.4% -8.2% 60% 0% -8.3%
all 30 +3.7% -6.2% 43% 3% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 3% -7.4%
10% -15.2% 3% -16.2%
15% -23.4% 3% -24.3%
20% -30.9% 3% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×11.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.5 per $1 lost it wins $14.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage454d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $52 +$2 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $24 $0 +2%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 14 $23 −$1 -2%
Will Freddie Freeman lead the MLB in RBI's? Apr 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? Apr 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $12 +$12 +93%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $2 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 06 $1 $0 +8%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 05 $15 $0 -2%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the third most seats in the next Canad Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 30 $14 $0 +1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 27 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $54 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $9 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $43 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $17 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $8 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $25 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $52 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $52 17h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $24 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 28d
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? BUY No 98¢ $1 363d
Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6? BUY No 99¢ $1 379d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 97¢ $1 399d
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 BUY No 99¢ $2 413d
Will TikTok be banned again before May? SELL No 97¢ $25 427d
Will TikTok be banned again before May? BUY No 96¢ $25 429d
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 SELL No 98¢ $25 429d
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 BUY No 98¢ $25 430d
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio SELL Yes 68¢ $5 430d
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio SELL Yes 68¢ $3 430d
Will Freddie Freeman lead the MLB in RBI's? SELL No 99¢ $18 430d
Will Freddie Freeman lead the MLB in RBI's? BUY No 99¢ $18 430d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 92¢ $11 430d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 92¢ $6 430d
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 430d
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 430d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.42 · official $1.42 (match) · 88 history records