Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3B 0x3be5…bc8b weather 513 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$289 (+4%) realized +$282 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate43%213W / 288L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$96
14 days+$181
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$270
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +51.2% +36.8% 33% 26% +8.0%
≤30d 441 +28.8% +16.5% 39% 25% -5.6%
≤90d 498 +24.7% +12.8% 42% 24% -6.4%
all 501 +24.5% +12.6% 43% 24% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.6% 24% -6.4%
10% +1.9% 20% -15.4%
15% -8.0% 17% -23.6%
20% -17.0% 15% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$282
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses213 / 288
Open positions12
Markets (closed)501 / 513
History coverage159d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 501 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 100¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+1822%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+78%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+150%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 250 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$14 +1774%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 +75%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$15 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$18 +1299%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$10 +3233%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +1991%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.13 · official $11.13 (match) · 1855 history records