Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3be4…f865
crypto · 322 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$179 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$179 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$179
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses272 / 49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)321 / 322
History coverage52d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 321 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 07 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 21 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 21 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 21 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 21 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 21 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 21 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 21 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 20 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 20 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 20 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 20 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 20 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 20 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 20 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 20 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 20 $12 $0 +2%
Will "Swapped" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 19 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$181
politics 0% +$2
other 0% +$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 88¢ $1 7h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 93¢ $4 2d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $4 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 5d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 97¢ $4 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 83¢ $6 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 69¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +25.0% +13.1% 100% 80% +8.5%
≤30d 175 -2.2% -11.5% 92% 7% -12.4%
≤90d 321 -5.0% -14.1% 85% 5% -14.5%
all 321 -5.0% -14.1% 85% 5% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 5% -14.5%
10% -22.3% 1% -22.6%
15% -29.8% 1% -30.1%
20% -36.7% 1% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 889 history records