Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:54:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3be3…a601 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$57 (+3%) realized −$1 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$228
sports 26% −$174
crypto 3% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +9.9% -0.5% 71% 71% -8.1%
≤30d 17 +9.9% -0.5% 71% 71% -8.1%
≤90d 17 +9.9% -0.5% 71% 71% -8.1%
all 17 +9.9% -0.5% 71% 71% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 71% -8.1%
10% -10.1% 71% -16.9%
15% -18.8% 59% -24.9%
20% -26.7% 35% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$123 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage5d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 92¢ $76 $134 +$58 (+76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$22 +44%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 +$56 +112%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $167 +$78 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$34 +69%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$32 +63%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $93 +$58 +63%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $134 −$130 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $104 +$29 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $132 +$73 +56%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $104 +$28 +27%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 +$42 +69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $300 −$295 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $251 +$111 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $169 +$82 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $78 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $50 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $45 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $167 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $50 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $93 44h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $100 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $134 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $104 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $132 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $132 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $104 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $62 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $300 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $251 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $169 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.12 · official $134.12 (match) · 30 history records