Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3be1…c0d6 other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$34
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$15
other 26% −$37
sports 20% −$11
crypto 8% −$6
finance 5% −$2
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% +$2
world 2% +$1
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 59 -0.9% -10.3% 7% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 106 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 126 -0.6% -10.1% 15% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 107
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage101d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 19 $169 −$2 -1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha Jun 18 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $46 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $252 −$1 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 17 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $308 −$1 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $139 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $213 −$2 -1%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $195 −$6 -3%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $325 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $90 −$2 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $850 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $49 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $67 +$3 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $99 −$1 -2%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Jun 12 $44 +$2 +5%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $25 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $199 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 10 $58 $0 -1%
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W Jun 10 $53 −$13 -24%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $24 −$1 -2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $68 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 02 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 01 $210 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $108 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $213 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $58 58m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $56 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $56 5h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $50 6h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $50 14h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha SELL No 92¢ $47 14h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha BUY No 94¢ $48 21h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $61 22h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $62 28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $46 29h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $46 36h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $50 36h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $50 42h
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 91¢ $49 43h
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 95¢ $51 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $54 2d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $45 2d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $46 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $8 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $29 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $48 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $48 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 96¢ $42 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.07 · official $58.07 (match) · 508 history records