Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3be0…4fcc crypto 320 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$61 (-4%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate66%210W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days+$1
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$59
sports 29% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -17.2% -25.1% 35% 26% -9.7%
≤30d 39 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 41% -12.8%
≤90d 320 -13.6% -21.8% 66% 35% -14.1%
all 320 -13.6% -21.8% 66% 35% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 35% -14.1%
10% -29.3% 23% -22.3%
15% -36.2% 9% -29.8%
20% -42.4% 6% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses210 / 110
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)320 / 320
History coverage78d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 320 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $11 +$2 +21%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $13 +$1 +5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $8 +$2 +28%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $7 −$2 -30%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $6 −$2 -27%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $11 −$1 -12%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $16 −$4 -23%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $14 −$2 -12%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $17 +$2 +9%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $21 +$4 +18%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $2 +$3 +101%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $51 −$2 -5%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Devin Vassell Total 3-Pointers (incl. OT): O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $4 +$3 +64%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 May 26 $8 +$2 +22%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 May 26 $8 +$3 +39%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 25 $3 +$2 +86%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 25 $4 +$1 +32%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 24 $4 +$1 +30%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 23 $4 +$1 +35%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 21 $4 +$1 +30%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 21 $4 +$1 +39%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings May 19 $1 +$4 +414%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-3.5) May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 15 $1 +$5 +474%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 May 15 $17 +$7 +38%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 14 $22 −$2 -7%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $7 +$12 +178%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5 May 12 $7 −$3 -40%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 215.5 May 12 $7 −$5 -68%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 11 $3 +$2 +64%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 109.5 May 11 $4 +$3 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 74¢ $4 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 38¢ $2 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $3 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 94¢ $5 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 92¢ $5 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 43¢ $2 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 88¢ $4 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 11¢ $1 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 78¢ $4 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $2 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 72¢ $4 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 35¢ $2 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ $3 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 43¢ $2 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 38¢ $2 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $3 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $3 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 35¢ $2 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 75¢ $4 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 25¢ $1 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Kansas City Royals 96¢ $5 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 68¢ $3 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 31¢ $2 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $2 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 60¢ $3 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 93¢ $4 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 93¢ $0 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 54¢ $3 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ $2 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 45¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 861 history records