Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bd9…0e33 sports 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$340 (-15%) realized −$308 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$263
7 days−$369
14 days−$369
30 days−$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$312
crypto 6% −$129
other 3% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -19.5% -27.1% 42% 39% -25.7%
≤30d 38 -19.5% -27.1% 42% 39% -25.7%
≤90d 38 -19.5% -27.1% 42% 39% -25.7%
all 38 -19.5% -27.1% 42% 39% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 39% -25.7%
10% -34.1% 37% -32.8%
15% -40.5% 34% -39.3%
20% -46.3% 32% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$41 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$308
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions7
Markets (closed)38 / 47
History coverage248d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 37¢ 38¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$42 +83%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$2 -5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$1 -3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$2 -4%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$3 -6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 +$36 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$34 -67%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$2 +3%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$74 +73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 +$20 +19%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$33 +65%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$2 -4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$27 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$17 +34%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$33 +64%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 +$31 +62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 +$25 +50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $51 +$27 +54%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 10m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 37¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 49¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $59 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 26h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $51 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $51 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 49¢ $48 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $49 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 60¢ $49 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $47 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $51 29h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $51 29h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $51 29h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $51 29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 19¢ $17 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $51 47h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 47h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $50 47h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $101 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $51 47h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $175 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 92¢ $70 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.30 · official $148.30 · 93 history records