Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3B 0x3bd4…d241 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$111 (+7%) realized +$126 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$87
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +9.1% -1.3% 100% 60% -1.4%
≤30d 10 -3.2% -12.4% 90% 30% -3.3%
≤90d 10 -3.2% -12.4% 90% 30% -3.3%
all 10 -3.2% -12.4% 90% 30% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 30% -3.3%
10% -20.8% 0% -12.6%
15% -28.4% 0% -21.0%
20% -35.5% 0% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$18 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.59 per $1 lost it wins $5.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$126
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage11d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $144 $149 +$4 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $71 $67 −$4 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $17 $12 −$6 (-33%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $134 +$18 +14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $230 +$34 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $208 +$22 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $199 +$9 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $195 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $149 +$11 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $74 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $146 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $142 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $152 6h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $130 23h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $134 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $230 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $230 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $208 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $199 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $195 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $160 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $18 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $149 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $51 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $21 9d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 9d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.08 · official $227.08 (match) · 27 history records