Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bca…9e0a world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 29L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% $0
other 21% $0
culture 17% $0
politics 14% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 12 +1.6% -8.1% 42% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +1.6% -8.1% 42% 8% -9.4%
all 40 +0.4% -9.1% 28% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage332d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $92 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $6 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $107 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +15%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $168 $0 +0%
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 07 $129 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22? Aug 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $5 $0 -1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 02 $5 $0 -0%
Houthi strike on Israel before August? Jul 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Jul 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 21 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $8 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 23h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $12 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $44 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $49 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $49 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.74 · official $38.74 (match) · 121 history records