Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3bc6…3b94
other · 4 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
−$4 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$83 · open −$87
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$221
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 2 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$83
14 days+$83
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $221 $219 −$2 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $87 $1 −$85 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$13 -13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $230 +$96 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $88 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $89 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $123 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $129 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +14.4% +3.5% 50% 50% +13.0%
≤30d 2 +14.4% +3.5% 50% 50% +13.0%
≤90d 2 +14.4% +3.5% 50% 50% +13.0%
all 2 +14.4% +3.5% 50% 50% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 50% +13.0%
10% -6.4% 50% +2.2%
15% -15.4% 50% -7.7%
20% -23.7% 0% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.66 · official $220.66 (match) · 8 history records