Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bc4…1dcb crypto 739 markets active 7d ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$112 (-8%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%360W / 379L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -10.0% -18.5% 40% 40% -15.5%
≤30d 99 -16.6% -24.5% 48% 48% -25.9%
≤90d 739 -9.9% -18.5% 49% 49% -18.0%
all 739 -9.9% -18.5% 49% 49% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 49% -18.0%
10% -26.3% 47% -25.9%
15% -33.4% 42% -33.0%
20% -39.9% 37% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses360 / 379
Open positions0
Markets (closed)739 / 739
History coverage81d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 739 Trades
no open positions (137 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1488 history records