Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3B 0x3bc3…0b17 sports 571 markets active 0h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,881 (-6%) realized −$11,881 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%279W / 288L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$260est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$64
14 days−$35
30 days−$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$2,299
other 37% −$10,121
crypto 1% −$59
world 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -28.1% -35.0% 44% 40% -12.4%
≤30d 159 -20.8% -28.3% 46% 42% -17.1%
≤90d 444 -26.5% -33.5% 39% 36% -60.1%
all 567 -13.0% -21.3% 49% 46% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 46% -15.5%
10% -28.8% 40% -23.6%
15% -35.7% 32% -31.0%
20% -42.0% 24% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$194 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,881
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses279 / 288
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$260
Open positions0
Markets (closed)567 / 571
History coverage222d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 567 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $252 −$252 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$23 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$10 +37%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $146 −$14 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$18 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$6 +49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $263 +$82 +31%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $91 −$26 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $57 +$34 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$58 +58%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $81 −$81 -100%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $150 +$57 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $251 +$74 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $27 +$1 +3%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 +$40 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $95 +$40 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 19m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $252 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 2¢ $5 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end BUY 18¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $100 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $82 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 29¢ $28 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $16 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 70¢ $132 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $36 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $146 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1510 history records