Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3bc3…384e
other · 328 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$26 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$24 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$172
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses212 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)317 / 328
History coverage114d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%
Chart Positions 10 History 317 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$22
14 days−$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $55 $59 +$4 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 84¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? No 82¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 64¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-27? No 85¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-10? No 77¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-04-25? No 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-20? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will América de Cali win on 2026-05-19? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Deportivo La Guaira FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 88¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? No 60¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +21%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will another candidate win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential Jun 11 $19 +$1 +5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +48%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $41 +$9 +22%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $338 +$15 +4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $5 +$1 +14%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Recoleta FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $1 $0 +16%
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $1 $0 +18%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $5 +$6 +118%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $6 $0 +8%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $10 $0 +3%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $2 $0 +24%
Will América de Cali win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $10 +$2 +23%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $10 +$13 +124%
Will América de Cali win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $5 +$2 +34%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $47 −$9 -19%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $5 +$1 +27%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $10 +$2 +17%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $5 +$2 +39%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $5 +$3 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 68% +$32
other 20% +$29
politics 4% +$7
finance 4% +$36
sports 3% −$70
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$3
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $24 55m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $20 4h
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 4h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $5 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 1¢ $0 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 82¢ $5 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 25h
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 27h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $20 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $3 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $6 27h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United BUY 55¢ $1 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $3 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 100¢ $13 45h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 74¢ $10 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 67¢ $10 46h
Will another candidate win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 100¢ $22 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? SELL No 100¢ $17 4d
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? SELL No 100¢ $21 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $16 4d
Will another candidate win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential BUY No 95¢ $19 4d
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 5d
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 87¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 5d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? SELL No 100¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -3.0% -12.2% 77% 50% -6.4%
≤30d 36 -4.0% -13.1% 75% 50% -8.9%
≤90d 181 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 47% -10.0%
all 317 -2.8% -12.1% 67% 39% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 39% -9.4%
10% -20.5% 31% -18.1%
15% -28.2% 20% -26.0%
20% -35.2% 13% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.18 · official $172.18 (match) · 1987 history records